The 10-Year Expiration Horizon

Projections derived from expired_date on all active licenses. Recomputed on every weekly ingestion run.

Amateur Radio 10-Year Renewal Horizon

Under FCC 47 CFR Part 97, Amateur Radio licenses are issued and renewed for 10-year terms. Licensees may renew without re-examination within 90 days prior to expiration, or during a two-year post-expiration grace period.

This page tracks future scheduled expirations for currently active licenses across the upcoming 10-year horizon. These figures represent upcoming scheduled maturity dates derived from current ULS license records, not a forecast of retention or renewal rates — see Methodology.

First Renewal Cohort projected
24,964
2027-Q1 First calendar quarter with >100 expirations
10-Year Projected Expirations projected
721,217
Total active licenses scheduled to mature 2027–2036

Quarterly Renewal Schedule (2026 – 2030)

The initial wave of 10-year expirations as the first cohort matures.

Quarter Scheduled Expirations Cohort Phase
2027-Q1 24,964 Initial Wave Begins
2027-Q2 22,726 Pre-reform residue
2027-Q3 17,466 Pre-reform residue
2027-Q4 22,277 Pre-reform residue
2028-Q1 22,925 Early 10-year cohort
2028-Q2 23,366 Early 10-year cohort
2028-Q3 17,307 Early 10-year cohort
2028-Q4 18,571 Early 10-year cohort
2029-Q1 19,944 Mid-decade 10-year cohort
2029-Q2 19,877 Mid-decade 10-year cohort
2029-Q3 15,395 Mid-decade 10-year cohort
2029-Q4 16,304 Mid-decade 10-year cohort
2030-Q1 18,260 Accelerating renewal volume
2030-Q2 17,743 Accelerating renewal volume
2030-Q3 18,104 Accelerating renewal volume
2030-Q4 17,082 Accelerating renewal volume
2031-Q1 21,212
2031-Q2 19,799
2031-Q3 16,490
2031-Q4 16,096
2032-Q1 17,501
2032-Q2 20,017
2032-Q3 13,843
2032-Q4 13,507
2033-Q1 16,788
2033-Q2 17,946
2033-Q3 15,720
2033-Q4 16,371
2034-Q1 21,250
2034-Q2 20,645
2034-Q3 18,113
2034-Q4 19,095
2035-Q1 19,015
2035-Q2 19,068
2035-Q3 15,577
2035-Q4 13,458
2036-Q1 19,790
2036-Q2 19,767
2036-Q3 14,191
2036-Q4 3,647

Annual Expirations Projection (2026 – 2036)

Ten-year projected expiration volume based on active licenses.

Year Scheduled Expirations
2027 87,433
2028 82,169
2029 71,520
2030 71,189
2031 73,597
2032 64,868
2033 66,825
2034 79,103
2035 67,118
2036 57,395